Waking up this morning to see things looking pretty good! Even if the Republicans do eventually take the House, they have demonstrated real weakness.
So I have four theories about what went wrong, other than the “Trump picked bad candidates in key races” theory--which is true. But is doesn’t explain why Lauren Boebert lost, or why Michigan is swinging blue at the state level.
Theory 1: Their internal polling is really bad. This happened to Romney in 2012 too, but it appears they completely missed the youth vote.
Theory 2: their internal polling was right, but they were bluffing to try to get independent voters to “pick a winner” and suppress the Democratic vote.
Theory 3: The hard push on crime was a major fail--it skewed the polling and motivated Black voters, who know that anti-crime rhetoric is always anti-Black rhetoric.
Theory 4: Supreme Court decisions on abortion and guns have taken these issues off the table for GOP voters in swing states, and demobilized some of them.
I like your theories below. I would like to add two
Theory 5: The Democratic Party has had a series of Come to Jesus moments over the last five years that managed to smooth out some of the public interparty squabbles that have been so prominent in recent elections. There were no Demo "spoilers" fracturing the vote.
Theory 6: The American people are tired and not as stupid as the GOP imagines.
Voted abroad from Beijing. But the senate race in my home state of NC didn't work out well. Looks like the dems will be up 1 seat in the senate. Uncertain how that will change things or set the stage for 2024.
Cheri Beasley At this moment seems to be losing to the horrendous Ted Budd after months of furious attack ads by the GOP some of which were so factual that all the North Carolina TV stations took them down. But seems to be coming from behind, she was ahead of him by several hundred thousand votes for most of the day.
Waking up this morning to see things looking pretty good! Even if the Republicans do eventually take the House, they have demonstrated real weakness.
So I have four theories about what went wrong, other than the “Trump picked bad candidates in key races” theory--which is true. But is doesn’t explain why Lauren Boebert lost, or why Michigan is swinging blue at the state level.
Theory 1: Their internal polling is really bad. This happened to Romney in 2012 too, but it appears they completely missed the youth vote.
Theory 2: their internal polling was right, but they were bluffing to try to get independent voters to “pick a winner” and suppress the Democratic vote.
Theory 3: The hard push on crime was a major fail--it skewed the polling and motivated Black voters, who know that anti-crime rhetoric is always anti-Black rhetoric.
Theory 4: Supreme Court decisions on abortion and guns have taken these issues off the table for GOP voters in swing states, and demobilized some of them.
MD Wes Moore!
Gov Lamont won in CT and Blumenthal kept his seat.
Not as bad as I thought, at least as of this moment.
Polls just closed in Wisconsin so no news yet. Fingers and toes crossed Claire!
I'm glad someone is confident that Warnock will win in Georgia, I'm feeling nervous!
Herschel Walker will lose badly. Still, Enough people voted for him to cause concern for the general sanity of the voting public in Georgia.
I like your theories below. I would like to add two
Theory 5: The Democratic Party has had a series of Come to Jesus moments over the last five years that managed to smooth out some of the public interparty squabbles that have been so prominent in recent elections. There were no Demo "spoilers" fracturing the vote.
Theory 6: The American people are tired and not as stupid as the GOP imagines.
Voted abroad from Beijing. But the senate race in my home state of NC didn't work out well. Looks like the dems will be up 1 seat in the senate. Uncertain how that will change things or set the stage for 2024.
Cheri Beasley At this moment seems to be losing to the horrendous Ted Budd after months of furious attack ads by the GOP some of which were so factual that all the North Carolina TV stations took them down. But seems to be coming from behind, she was ahead of him by several hundred thousand votes for most of the day.
Yes this took some time to log on
Florida Ron DeSantis and Marco Rubio won here plus pick up e GOP house seats maybe 4